Trump needs a big, beautiful coalition to pass a big, beautiful reconciliation bill, and that's what the riff is all about. There are many important reasons for President Trump to be tough on one of his big, beautiful bills in his meeting with Republican senators tonight, but an almost overlooked reason is the diversity of House Republicans, where any truly significant legislation requires a coalition. Here's speaker Mike Johnson making the point today:
Mike Johnson: “I think it makes the most sense in terms of what we have to accomplish. The House is a very diverse conference. The House Republican conference is a broad and over 200 people who have a lot of different opinions and dynamics in their districts in the House. So, you're going to take that into account and we So, I think if you put all the measures in one package and it increases the chances of achieving all of our objectives. That's why we focused on a one-bill strategy.”
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I can think of at least four key parties whose votes will be needed to pass President Trump's agenda. One is the pro-growth supply-side tax-cutting group. Secondly those who want enough resources to close the border. Third are those who will insist on balancing the budget cuts offsets for PAYGO cost Increase and fourth are heavy duty defense hawks.
Personally, I'm in favor of all four, but not all at the House GOP conference. Speaker Mike Johnson says a one-bill strategy is the only way to bring all these disparate interests together. It's important to note that the PAYGO budget-cutters are going to play an important role in any negotiations – whether it's over this one bill or the next ten, and they're right. There is a clear disregard for budget overspending in both political parties. This is Uniparty shortage And the debt bonanza has been stopped.
That said, delaying tax cuts will delay the blue-collar boom. Delaying the tax cuts would frustrate President Trump's new Republican working-class coalition. Delaying tax cuts would delay the next real middle-class boom — which would hurt Republicans in the 2026 midterms. Most of the tax cuts are simply extensions of Mr. Trump's first-term tax cuts. There is nothing terribly complicated about it.
Trump's plan for a 15% corporate tax rate, along with tax-free cash tips and overtime pay, are all important economic growth measures, but there's nothing tough about them either. Also, this Trumpian mix of supply-side policies — tax cuts, deregulation and more energy production — will eventually end bidenflation. Meanwhile, the House has already passed HR1 for energy reform and HR2 for border closures
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As far as various knick-knacks, if some of our Republican friends want to double the salt deduction – well, that's small beer. Just give it to them.
Finally, contrary to some fake news, Mr. Trump is looking at a broad-based universal tariff, which could Salary For huge tax cuts – and then some. The United States imports about $5 trillion-worth each year, and 10% of that is worth $500 billion. It also buys many tax cuts—and other priorities. Along with the need for coalition-thinking, people should think about the tariff potential to finance these tax cuts. Believe me, this is never far from President Trump's mind. That's the riff.
This article is adapted from Larry Kudlow's opening commentary in the January 8, 2025, “Kudlow” edition.